Abstract
A qualitative risk analysis for an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5/H7 related to the illegal importation of Neotropical songbirds was conducted in Trinidad. A qualitative risk assessment framework recommended by the World Organization for Animal Health was used to carry out this study. The study concluded that at any time in the future there could be an HPAI outbreak among backyard flocks in at least 40% of poultry farms in Trinidad and the Poultry Surveillance Unit will not be able to detect the virus in time to prevent the outbreak. Incongruous wildlife legislation and absent pet shop legislation have inadvertently facilitated the illegal Neotropical songbird trade which may have been responsible for the circulation of low pathogenic avian influenza. This study recommends (i) pet shops need to be governed with specific legislation and institutional oversight (ii) poultry farms need appropriate structural biosecurity (iii) the Poultry Surveillance Unit needs to be adequately staffed, adequately funded and adequately empowered.